Casi todos los comentaristas coinciden desde ayer en el “error Zapatero” y no otorgan ninguna posibilidad al sorprendente candidato a la alcaldía de Madrid. Para Gallardón parece abrirse un paseo militar que le conducirá a una holgada mayoría, mayor aun que las obtenidas por el PP en las cuatro últimas elecciones municipales: 30 asientos en el consistorio frente a los 21 socialistas (y cuatro de sus aliados inevitables de IU).
El candidato Sebastián llega muerto, dicen, sin posibilidad alguna de éxito. Con suelo (¿techo?) en el medio millón de votos que obtenía Barranco o los 600.000 que alcanzó Trinidad Jiménez, en torno al 34% de los votos. Si Sebastián no alcanza ese listón el 27 de mayo próximo, el fracaso será de Zapatero. Si mejora ese porciento, aunque no gane la apuesta, habrá sido insuficiente pero no fallida, un fracaso con explicaciones.
¿Puede estar tranquilo Gallardón? En principio parece que su reelección está garantizada. Pero cualquier político con experiencia sabe que no hay nada peor que el exceso de confianza, cualquier contrincante requiere atención y dedicación.
Supongo que Gallardón va a ganar, pero estoy seguro de que la campaña va a ser interesante y que no van a faltar propuestas sugestivas. A Sebastián no le conoce nadie (hoy unos miles más que ayer) pero no es candidato irrelevante, ni falto de argumentos. No es un político profesional, ¡pues mira que bien!, es alguien que llega de nuevas con bagaje, con lecturas y viajado.
El varapalo que los medios dan hoy a Sebastián puede que le haya hecho subir algún punto en las preferencias. Además, los electores suelen tener su propio criterio y, a veces, basta que un crítico diga que la película es mala para que se animen a ir a verla.
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